A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
